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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-025 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

China and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.

Wrongjudged 3 August 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 July 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is wrong.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“there'll be a falling out between China and Russia”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 40:36 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

There was no China-Russia falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar world declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026 and extended the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness; the visible strain is commercial, with Power of Siberia 2 talks deadlocked in July 2026 over a gas price gap of roughly 50 against 250 dollars per thousand cubic metres, and neither side walking away.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. reviewed batch, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Wrong

    There was no China-Russia falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar world declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026 and extended the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighborliness; the visible strain is commercial, with Power of Siberia 2 talks deadlocked in July 2026 over a gas price gap of roughly 50 against 250 dollars per thousand cubic metres, and neither side walking away.

Restated in other lectures

  • Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.