We record named forecasters’ checkable predictions, timestamped to the moment they said them, and score them against public evidence.
Currently tracking
Prof Jiang Xueqin84 on the record, 33 judged
Prof Robert PapeNothing on the record yet, 1 appearance read
Photos: Soar Financially, CC BY 4.0; Robert Pape, public domain. Via Wikimedia Commons. Independent and unaffiliated; nobody here has been asked to take part.
The record so far, 2 forecasters combined
The road to a score
65% on 33 resolved calls.
A success rate appears only at 20 resolved verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
Next verdict due
Latest verdict
Condition never happened
Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
Every prediction is timestamped to the moment it was said and judged against public evidence, with the sources shown. The figures are computed, never editorialised, and the denominator is stated openly.
Each person’s own record: Prof Jiang XueqinProf Robert Pape
Season by season
Watched is videos watched in full; Found is the checkable claims pulled from them. A season is the year the claim was made on camera.
| Season | Watched | Found | On record | Resolved | Confirmed | Partly right | Wrong | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71 | 473 | 35 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2025 | 72 | 167 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 2024 | 39 | 114 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 14 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Career | 183 | 754 | 84 | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 50 |
Later seasons show zeros in the record columns because those claims are still in review or too recent to judge. The full queue is on the methodology page.
Latest verdicts, and why
- Condition never happened
Our assessment Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
- Partial
Our assessment Three pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
- Confirmed
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
- Confirmed
Our assessment V-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
- Confirmed
Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.
Our assessment Iran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
- Confirmed
Our assessment Trump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
The open claims, and what settles them
- JL-001Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
- JL-003Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
- JL-014Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
- JL-007Settled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
- JL-006Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
The receipts
The three newest claims on the record, each linked to the second it was said on camera.
- Prof Jiang Xueqin
Argentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States withi...
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it at 20:40, said on 20 July 2026 (opens on YouTube in a new tab) - Prof Jiang Xueqin
If Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will beco...
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it at 28:17, said on 18 July 2026 (opens on YouTube in a new tab) - Prof Jiang Xueqin
In a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages,...
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it at 9:46, said on 11 July 2026 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)
Corrections on the record
5 verdicts carry a dated correction note: citations replaced with primary and independent sources, because a publicly editable page can change after a verdict is issued. Nothing is rewritten; the record is append-only.
A scorekeeper you can trust is one you can watch correcting itself.
Currently in motion
Unresolved calls that should become judgeable within 90 days.
- JL-054 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: EnergySaid 28 Apr 2026 31:27watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 28 Oct 2026Pending28 Oct 2026
- JL-073 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: EnergySaid 7 Apr 2026 6:00watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 7 Oct 2026Pending7 Oct 2026
Themes
- AI Bubble and NationalisationThe thesis that the AI build-out inflates a bubble and draws state intervention.
- Argentina AscendancyThe thesis that Argentina turns a corner economically and politically, moving from crisis toward growth.
- Empire in Decline: US InstitutionsThe thesis that US institutional capacity erodes, with knock-on effects for global order.
- Forever War: EnergyThe thesis that prolonged geopolitical conflict keeps energy scarce and strategically valuable.
- Hard Money and DebasementThe thesis that currency debasement drives a return to hard assets as a store of value.
- Rearmament and War EconomyThe thesis that states re-arm and shift toward war-footing industrial policy.