the answer :: what the record says
Timestamped
Named people make predictions on camera. We write down exactly what they said, set the test in advance, and score it when the date arrives.
28he was right
7half right
11he was wrong
46 have reached their deadline and been scored
51 have not been scored, so they are not in the percentage
50 still running, 1 we cannot score
Most of these are about years, not weeks. One of them runs to 2070.
main :: the whole record, as at 2026-10-22
score of the resolved calls
68%of 46 resolved calls. 50 are still running.
a half right counts as half.
nothing is published below 20 resolved calls.
he does not get to edit any of it.
28
he was right
11
he was wrong
7
he was half right
50
still running
every claim on the record, oldest first. one square is one claim.
195
appearances read
839
claims spotted
97
on the record
46
scored so far
righthalf rightwrongstill runningcannot be scored11 are past their date and still waiting on us
subjects :: 7 of them
Press a subject to load it into the playlist. A claim can sit under more than one, so these counts do not add up to the whole record.
playlist :: all 97 claims
- 1 halfA ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.2026-04-24his
- 2 halfIf the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.he named no end dateours
- 3 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08ours
- 4 rightIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.2026-12-31ours
- 5 halfIn a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.he named no end dateours
- 6 halfIn a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.he named no end dateours
- 7 rightIf a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.he named no end dateours
- 8 halfDespite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.he named no end dateours
- 9 halfAs Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.he named no end dateours
- 10 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24ours
- 11 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08ours
- 12 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08ours
- 13 rightIf Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.he named no end dateours
- 14 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08his
- 15 rightA majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.2024-12-31his
- 16 wrongVoter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.2024-12-31ours
- 17 rightTrump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.2024-11-30his
- 18 wrongTrump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.2024-08-31ours
- 19 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
- 20 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
- 21 rightWith Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.2029-05-24ours
- 22 rightIran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.2029-05-24his
- 23 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.!2024-06-30his
- 24 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29his
- 25 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
- 26 wrongUS college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.2024-12-31ours
- 27 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
- 28 wrongThe November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.2025-01-31his
- 29 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
- 30 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20ours
- 31 wrongMarine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.2024-09-15his
- 32 rightThe United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.2025-08-18ours
- 33 rightAmerica and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.2026-06-18ours
- 34 rightThe United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.2025-06-25his
- 35 rightChina will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31ours
- 36 rightNuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31ours
- 37 rightThe US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.2025-12-31ours
- 38 rightThe US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.2026-06-18ours
- 39 wrongThe American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.2025-09-30his
- 40 runningUS air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.!2025-12-31ours
- 41 rightNetanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.2025-12-31ours
- 42 rightDespite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.2026-06-25ours
- 43 wrongIsrael will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.2025-09-18his
- 44 wrongChina and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.2026-07-18ours
- 45 wrongThe Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.2026-07-18ours
- 46 rightIn the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.2045-01-01ours
- 47 runningBy the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.2070-01-01ours
- 48 rightThe United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.2026-06-30ours
- 49 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
- 50 runningIf current demographic trends continue, Muslims will come to control Europe within about 25 years, i.e. by roughly 2051.2051-01-15ours
- 51 runningBy 2050, white Americans will no longer be a majority of the United States population.2050-12-31his
- 52 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
- 53 rightThe US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.2026-06-03ours
- 54 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
- 55 rightIran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.2026-09-03ours
- 56 rightThe global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.2026-07-03his
- 57 rightBahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.2026-09-03ours
- 58 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
- 59 halfWithin the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.2026-04-30his
- 60 runningThe United States will have the manufacturing capacity to sustain a war against Iran in roughly five years (around 2031), but does not have it now.2031-03-05ours
- 61 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
- 62 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
- 63 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
- 64 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
- 65 rightSaudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.2026-06-30ours
- 66 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
- 67 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
- 68 runningNationalism and remilitarization will be a defining global trend of the next ten to twenty years, with resilient nations mobilizing their young to fight.2046-03-24ours
- 69 runningWith the end of American hegemony, world trade will reorganize into mercantilist regional trading blocs rather than a single global system.2036-03-24ours
- 70 runningGermany and Russia will go to war against each other within roughly the next five to ten years, before later reconciling.2036-03-24ours
- 71 runningMigration flows from Africa and the Middle East into Europe, and from Latin America into the United States, will accelerate by roughly one hundred times.2036-03-24ours
- 72 runningImmigration-driven cultural tension will lead to civil conflict inside North America and Europe.2046-03-24ours
- 73 runningResource-rich nations will institute AI surveillance states ('techno-Marxism') to ration resources and control their populations, producing sharp class stratification.2046-03-24ours
- 74 runningRussia and Germany will eventually form an alliance in Europe, within the ten-to-twenty-year horizon he describes.2046-03-24ours
- 75 runningProf Jiang will end the semester with four lectures on The Divine Comedy delivered once every two weeks, starting the Friday after this lecture.!2026-06-30ours
- 76 runningUS public support for the Iran war, currently around 40 percent, will decline as the war continues.2026-12-31ours
- 77 wrongThe United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).2026-03-30his
- 78 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
- 79 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
- 80 rightTrump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.2026-06-01his
- 81 runningThe Trump administration will move next to assert US authority over Greenland as an Arctic choke point.2027-04-07ours
- 82 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
- 83 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
- 84 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
- 85 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
- 86 rightThe United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.2026-12-31ours
- 87 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
- 88 runningDonald Trump will pursue a third presidential term.2028-11-07ours
- 89 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
- 90 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
- 91 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
- 92 rightWithin the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.2026-10-28his
- 93 runningOpenAI will turn ChatGPT into a sexual companion product in order to attract more users.2026-12-31ours
- 94 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
- 95 wrongIn a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.2026-08-31ours
- 96 neverIf Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.2031-07-18ours
- 97 runningArgentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.2027-07-20ours
97 claims, 46 scored, 50 running :: arrow keys walk the list
now playing
JL-004A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
4:17clip at
said 24 Apr 2024due 24 Apr 2026
track 1 of 97clock hissources 6scored 3 Aug 2026
he was half rightJL-004Prof Jiang Xueqin
A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
his words, 25 at most“it's possible that in two years time there will be a ground invasion”
He set the clock himself: two years.
our assessmentThe premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
watch him say it at 4:17 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)the full record for JL-004
read me
What this is. Every forecast we have recorded from a named person on camera, written down with the date they said it, the date it comes due, and what actually happened. They get no say in the scoring and no chance to edit it afterwards.
Why most subjects show no percentage. A score needs at least 20 resolved calls before it means anything, so a subject under that floor prints --% and says how many more it needs. The floor was published before the first verdict, not chosen afterwards. How the scoring works.
Whose clock. HIS means the speaker named the date himself. OURS means he did not, so we picked one to keep the claim checkable, and no machine is allowed to mark anyone wrong against a date they never gave.
Tracking 2: Prof Jiang Xueqin, 97 on the record, 46 judged; Prof Robert Pape, nothing on the record yet, 1 appearance read.
The pipeline. 195 appearances read, 839 candidate claims pulled out of them, 97 approved onto the ledger by hand. No claim joins it without a person saying so. Most recent read: Global Meet-Up #7 (Toronto): The Rupture (opens on YouTube in a new tab).
5 verdicts carry a dated correction note: citations replaced with primary and independent sources, because a publicly editable page can change after a verdict is issued. Nothing is rewritten; the record is append-only. How corrections are handled.
Commentary and historical scorekeeping, not financial advice. Transcripts stay private. Each claim shows a paraphrase, at most one 25 word quote, and a link to the exact second of the video.