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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-023 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

If Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.

Condition never happeneddue 18 July 2031

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 July 2026. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is condition never happened.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“Messi will become the next president of Argentina”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 28:17 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Not yet assessed

Our assessment: the condition never happened, so this claim was never scoreable and counts towards neither the hits nor the misses. He said it on 18 July 2026, the day before the final. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time on 19 July 2026, Ferran Torres scoring as a substitute, giving Spain a second World Cup. Argentina did not win, so the condition he attached to the claim failed the next day and can never now be met. Nothing here is a judgement on whether Messi will ever enter Argentine politics.

We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. condition re-read, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Condition never happened

    Our assessment: the condition never happened, so this claim was never scoreable and counts towards neither the hits nor the misses. He said it on 18 July 2026, the day before the final. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time on 19 July 2026, Ferran Torres scoring as a substitute, giving Spain a second World Cup. Argentina did not win, so the condition he attached to the claim failed the next day and can never now be met. Nothing here is a judgement on whether Messi will ever enter Argentine politics.

Restated in other lectures

  • Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.