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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-056 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

Nuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.

Confirmedjudged 9 September 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 June 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“will nuclear weapons be used in this war at any point? And my intuition tells me it won't be”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 12:58 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

No nuclear weapon was used at any point. SIPRI's yearbook of 8 June 2026 still lists nine nuclear-armed states with Iran not among them, and both the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions. This was a high base rate call rather than a contested one.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. Issued automatically by staged-research
    Pending changed to Confirmed

    No nuclear weapon was used at any point. SIPRI's yearbook of 8 June 2026 still lists nine nuclear-armed states with Iran not among them, and both the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions. This was a high base rate call rather than a contested one.

the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.