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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-026 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.

Wrongjudged 3 August 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 7 June 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is wrong.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“in November 2024, we will see the lowest turnout one of the lowest turnouts of voters in American history”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 34:15 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

Turnout in November 2024 was among the highest in more than a century, not the lowest. The Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of citizen voting-age population, and Pew ranks the 64 percent eligible-voter rate as the second highest since 1908, behind only 2020.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. reviewed batch, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Wrong

    Turnout in November 2024 was among the highest in more than a century, not the lowest. The Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of citizen voting-age population, and Pew ranks the 64 percent eligible-voter rate as the second highest since 1908, behind only 2020.

the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.