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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-041 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.

Confirmedjudged 3 August 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 February 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“about to launch trade wars against a lot of countries. Canada, Mexico, quite possibly, very quickly, that's the European Union”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 7:52 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

The trade war reached the European Union well inside the 17 August 2025 deadline: Trump announced a 20% reciprocal tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, cut it to 10% during a 90-day pause, called for 50% on 23 May 2025, and settled at 15% on all EU-origin goods under the 27 July 2025 framework. The escalation the claim described occurred, then was partly defused by a deal.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. reviewed batch, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Confirmed

    The trade war reached the European Union well inside the 17 August 2025 deadline: Trump announced a 20% reciprocal tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, cut it to 10% during a 90-day pause, called for 50% on 23 May 2025, and settled at 15% on all EU-origin goods under the 27 July 2025 framework. The escalation the claim described occurred, then was partly defused by a deal.

the small print

This site is commentary and historical scorekeeping, not financial advice. Nothing here considers your circumstances. Speak to a licensed adviser before making investment decisions. Full disclaimer.

Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.