JL-004
A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
In short
He said this on 24 April 2024. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 24 April 2026.
What he said
“it's possible that in two years time there will be a ground invasion”
Not yet assessed
Pending
Expected to be judgeable by
We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.