Theme
Forever War: Energy
The thesis that prolonged geopolitical conflict keeps energy scarce and strategically valuable.
- JL-022said 11 July 2026In a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Aug 2026 - JL-054said 28 Apr 2026Within the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.
Our assessment After 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-065said 21 Apr 2026Pending21 Apr 2027
- JL-088said 9 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-075said 7 Apr 2026If the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 June 2026 - JL-076said 7 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-061said 7 Apr 2026If the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-029said 7 Apr 2026The United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.
Our assessment Trump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-073said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Oct 2026
- JL-074said 7 Apr 2026If Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-036said 2 Apr 2026If the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue15 Apr 2026 - JL-020said 26 Mar 2026The United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).
Our assessment No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-032said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2046
- JL-028said 19 Mar 2026Saudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.
Our assessment Iranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-070said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-071said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2028
- JL-072said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-037said 5 Mar 2026Within the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.
Our assessment Three pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-035said 3 Mar 2026The US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.
Our assessment The war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-040said 3 Mar 2026The global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.
Our assessment The World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-046said 3 Mar 2026Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.
Our assessment Iran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-078said 3 Mar 2026The US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue3 June 2026 - JL-079said 3 Mar 2026Pending3 Mar 2027
- JL-086said 18 Dec 2025Pending18 Dec 2027
- JL-039said 18 Dec 2025The United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.
Our assessment The US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-064said 18 July 2025Israel will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.
Our assessment The June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-016said 18 July 2025The Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.
Our assessment No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-062said 25 June 2025Despite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.
Our assessment US and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-063said 25 June 2025Netanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.
Our assessment Israel carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-060said 18 June 2025US air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-058said 18 June 2025The United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.
Our assessment The United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-059said 18 June 2025The US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-055said 18 June 2025America and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.
Our assessment No US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-038said 18 June 2025The US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.
Our assessment The government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-057said 18 June 2025The American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.
Our assessment A ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-085said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-084said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-053said 29 May 2024A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-051said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Dec 2024 - JL-066said 22 May 2024Pending20 Jan 2029
- JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-002said 8 May 2024If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
Our assessment Israel opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-008said 24 Apr 2024Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Our assessment Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
Partial29 July 2026 - JL-010said 24 Apr 2024If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Our assessment The European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-005said 24 Apr 2024As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
Our assessment The two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-012said 24 Apr 2024In a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
Our assessment China kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-007said 24 Apr 2024Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
Settled by Settled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-006said 24 Apr 2024Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Settled by Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-013said 24 Apr 2024In a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.
Our assessment Russia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-004said 24 Apr 2024A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
Our assessment The premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-011said 24 Apr 2024If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
Our assessment Trump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-009said 24 Apr 2024If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
Our assessment In June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026