Forever War: Energy

The thesis that prolonged geopolitical conflict keeps energy scarce and strategically valuable.

Predictions in this theme (12)

JL-0022024
If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0032024
The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
- Forever War: Energy
- Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending2030-05-08
JL-0042024
A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending2026-04-24
JL-0052024
As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0062024
Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0072024
Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0082024
Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
- Forever War: Energy
- Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending
JL-0092024
If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0102024
If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
- Forever War: Energy
- Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending
JL-0112024
If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending2026-12-31
JL-0122024
In a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0132024
In a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending