A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
In short
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 29 May 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“war between the United States and Iran is very likely in the next 2 to 4”
Our assessment
The United States entered open hostilities with Iran twice inside the window: direct US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, then a full air campaign, Operation Epic Fury, starting 28 February 2026, with 17 US service members killed by 20 July 2026. Fighting was still going on well before the May 2028 deadline, though Congress never declared war.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history
- reviewed batch, 3 August 2026Pending changed to Confirmed
The United States entered open hostilities with Iran twice inside the window: direct US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025, then a full air campaign, Operation Epic Fury, starting 28 February 2026, with 17 US service members killed by 20 July 2026. Fighting was still going on well before the May 2028 deadline, though Congress never declared war.