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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-055 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

America and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.

Confirmedjudged 9 September 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 June 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“they won't be able to occupy the country”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 12:26 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

No US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei being killed on 28 February. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on 30 March the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways without boots on the ground, and the 17 June memorandum signed by Trump and President Pezeshkian commits both sides to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and pulls US forces back from Iran's vicinity.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. Issued automatically by staged-research
    Pending changed to Confirmed

    No US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei being killed on 28 February. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said on 30 March the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways without boots on the ground, and the 17 June memorandum signed by Trump and President Pezeshkian commits both sides to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and pulls US forces back from Iran's vicinity.

the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.