JL-006 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 24 April 2024. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 8 May 2030.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“before the actual invasion there would be an agreement among all major parties”
Not yet assessed
Expected to be judgeable by
We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.
What settles this
Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
Rules-of-war agreement Not observed
A major-power agreement on rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, before any invasion
The 17 June 2026 memorandum carried no such agreement.
US invasion begins Not observed
A US ground invasion of Iran begins
0 of 2 named conditions observed
Condition readings are our assessment, drawn from the linked sources; the verdict itself is decided by a human when the claim settles.