JL-008 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 24 April 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is partial.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“they may not be able to win this war”
Our assessment
Our assessment: The condition, a US-Israel war against Iran, occurred: the June 2025 12-day war, then full-scale joint war from 28 February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. The consequent splits in two. Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed: tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, missile and drone strikes on Gulf states hosting US forces, and a Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Whether the US and Israel can win remains open: the April ceasefire collapsed and CFR judges the conflict unresolved with no decisive victory. As of 23 Jul 2026: US strikes have run over ten consecutive nights while Iran and its proxies keep the war going.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 1
- Issued by the editorPending changed to Partial
Our assessment: The condition, a US-Israel war against Iran, occurred: the June 2025 12-day war, then full-scale joint war from 28 February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. The consequent splits in two. Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed: tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, missile and drone strikes on Gulf states hosting US forces, and a Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Whether the US and Israel can win remains open: the April ceasefire collapsed and CFR judges the conflict unresolved with no decisive victory. As of 23 Jul 2026: US strikes have run over ten consecutive nights while Iran and its proxies keep the war going.