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JL-076 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

If the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.

Pendingdue 31 December 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 7 April 2026. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 31 December 2026.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“as this war progresses, if you insist on fighting a air war, you're going to lose more and more planes”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 16:28 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

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Themes: Forever War: Energy.The full ledger · How a claim is scored · Reply or correct this
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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.