JL-010 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 24 April 2024. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is partial.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“NATO would not involve itself the Middle Eastern”
Our assessment
Our assessment: the condition occurred. The United States struck Iran in June 2025 and has fought a joint war alongside Israel since February 2026. The consequent splits, and it has moved against the claim since we last wrote. The European half holds: no European state took part, the United Kingdom did not join the strikes themselves, NATO took no alliance role, and Spain refused the use of Spanish bases for operations against Iran. The Middle Eastern half no longer holds. On 28 July 2026 Saudi fighter aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft against Iran-aligned militias in eastern Iraq, which US Central Command described as strikes on "multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites", in response to more than 30 drone attacks in 72 hours. That ends roughly six months of Saudi non-involvement and it is the clearest evidence on the record that the United States is not fighting alone. Jordan is more awkward than we allowed: it hosts American personnel and hardware, Iranian missiles have been intercepted above those sites, and it has not retaliated, which is hosting without combat participation rather than a refusal to take part. Gulf base and airspace denials have been widely reported, but no source cited on this page establishes them, so we no longer rest any part of the verdict on that limb. And Israel was a full co-belligerent throughout, which was always the plainest reason the claim could not be Confirmed. Partial stands, and this correction strengthens it rather than weakening it. Citations corrected 1 August 2026: Wikipedia references replaced with primary and independent sources, because a publicly editable page can change after a verdict is issued. Corrected 3 August 2026: the Saudi combat missions of 28 July 2026 added and the Gulf refusal limb withdrawn, and two citations replaced, because one predated the war it was cited to describe and the other showed Gulf states hosting American forces rather than refusing to take part.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 3
- Issued by the editorPending changed to Partial
Our assessment: The condition occurred: the US struck Iran in June 2025 and has fought a joint war alongside Israel since February 2026. The consequent splits. NATO refused any alliance role, no European state fought, and Spain denied base access; Saudi Arabia condemned the June 2025 strikes; Gulf states barred their bases and airspace from launching attacks on Iran; Jordan defended only its own airspace. But the US did not fight alone: Israel was a full co-belligerent throughout. As of 23 Jul 2026: US strikes on Iran continue past day 11 while Iran hits Gulf hosts of US bases, which still refuse combat roles.
- Issued by the editorPartial changed to Partial
Our assessment: The condition occurred: the US struck Iran in June 2025 and has fought a joint war alongside Israel since February 2026. The consequent splits. NATO refused any alliance role, no European state fought, and Spain denied base access; Saudi Arabia condemned the June 2025 strikes; Gulf states barred their bases and airspace from launching attacks on Iran; Jordan defended only its own airspace. But the US did not fight alone: Israel was a full co-belligerent throughout. As of 23 Jul 2026: US strikes on Iran continue past day 11 while Iran hits Gulf hosts of US bases, which still refuse combat roles. Citations corrected 1 August 2026: Wikipedia references replaced with primary and independent sources, because a publicly editable page can change after a verdict is issued.
- Issued by the editorPartial changed to Partial
Our assessment: the condition occurred. The United States struck Iran in June 2025 and has fought a joint war alongside Israel since February 2026. The consequent splits, and it has moved against the claim since we last wrote. The European half holds: no European state took part, the United Kingdom did not join the strikes themselves, NATO took no alliance role, and Spain refused the use of Spanish bases for operations against Iran. The Middle Eastern half no longer holds. On 28 July 2026 Saudi fighter aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft against Iran-aligned militias in eastern Iraq, which US Central Command described as strikes on "multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites", in response to more than 30 drone attacks in 72 hours. That ends roughly six months of Saudi non-involvement and it is the clearest evidence on the record that the United States is not fighting alone. Jordan is more awkward than we allowed: it hosts American personnel and hardware, Iranian missiles have been intercepted above those sites, and it has not retaliated, which is hosting without combat participation rather than a refusal to take part. Gulf base and airspace denials have been widely reported, but no source cited on this page establishes them, so we no longer rest any part of the verdict on that limb. And Israel was a full co-belligerent throughout, which was always the plainest reason the claim could not be Confirmed. Partial stands, and this correction strengthens it rather than weakening it. Citations corrected 1 August 2026: Wikipedia references replaced with primary and independent sources, because a publicly editable page can change after a verdict is issued. Corrected 3 August 2026: the Saudi combat missions of 28 July 2026 added and the Gulf refusal limb withdrawn, and two citations replaced, because one predated the war it was cited to describe and the other showed Gulf states hosting American forces rather than refusing to take part.