JL-011
If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
In short
He said this on 24 April 2024. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 31 December 2026.
What he said
“I think it will be Trump who initiates the war”
Not yet assessed
Pending
Expected to be judgeable by
We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.