JL-016 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
The Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 July 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is wrong.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“the war in Ukraine will shift to Odessa. That's where the final battle between NATO and Russia will take place”
Our assessment
No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. ISW recorded no ground activity in the Kherson direction on 15 and 17 July 2026, no confirmed Russian advances anywhere on 17 July, and Russian forces losing 1.6 square kilometres per day that month; Odesa was hit by missile and drone strikes on ports and shipping, not encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
Evidence
- Evidence source: kyivindependent.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: understandingwar.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: understandingwar.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: csmonitor.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: defensenews.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: euronews.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: justsecurity.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: nato.int (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: orfonline.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: sipri.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: timesofisrael.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: timesofisrael.com (opens in a new tab)
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 1
- reviewed batch, 3 August 2026Pending changed to Wrong
No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. ISW recorded no ground activity in the Kherson direction on 15 and 17 July 2026, no confirmed Russian advances anywhere on 17 July, and Russian forces losing 1.6 square kilometres per day that month; Odesa was hit by missile and drone strikes on ports and shipping, not encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
- Evidence source: kyivindependent.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: understandingwar.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: understandingwar.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: aljazeera.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: csmonitor.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: defensenews.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: euronews.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: justsecurity.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: nato.int (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: orfonline.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: sipri.org (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: timesofisrael.com (opens in a new tab)
- Evidence source: timesofisrael.com (opens in a new tab)
Restated in other lectures
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
- Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.