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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-029 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.

Confirmedjudged 3 August 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 7 April 2026. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“We can also expect um America to basically create a choke point over the Strait of Hormuz”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 12:09 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

Settled in the affirmative, and more literally than the claim put it. Trump declared on 13 July 2026 that the US would be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT", reinstated the naval blockade from 20 GMT that Tuesday and demanded reimbursement at 20 percent of all cargo shipped. By 20 to 26 July only 39 vessels transited, against roughly 130 crossings a day before the war.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. reviewed batch, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Confirmed

    Settled in the affirmative, and more literally than the claim put it. Trump declared on 13 July 2026 that the US would be known as "THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT", reinstated the naval blockade from 20 GMT that Tuesday and demanded reimbursement at 20 percent of all cargo shipped. By 20 to 26 July only 39 vessels transited, against roughly 130 crossings a day before the war.

the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.