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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored
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JL-003 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.

Pendingdue 8 May 2030

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 8 May 2024. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 8 May 2030.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“the United States will invade Iran we don't know when it might be two years”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 0:14 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Not yet assessed

Expected to be judgeable by

We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.

What settles this

Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.

  • Ground invasion Not observed

    US ground forces enter Iran

    No ground invasion as of this reading.

0 of 1 named condition observed

Condition readings are our assessment, drawn from the linked sources; the verdict itself is decided by a human when the claim settles.

Themes: Forever War: Energy, Empire in Decline: US Institutions.The full ledger · How a claim is scored · Reply or correct this
the small print

This site is commentary and historical scorekeeping, not financial advice. Nothing here considers your circumstances. Speak to a licensed adviser before making investment decisions. Full disclaimer.

Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.