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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored
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JL-071 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.

Pendingdue 12 March 2028

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 12 March 2026. We have not assessed it yet; it should be judgeable by 12 March 2028.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“can Americans go home? The answer is, no, they can't.”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 65:05 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Not yet assessed

Expected to be judgeable by

We publish no view until there is public evidence to settle it. How we score.

Themes: Forever War: Energy, Empire in Decline: US Institutions.The full ledger · How a claim is scored · Reply or correct this
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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.