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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-020 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).

Wrongjudged 3 August 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 26 March 2026. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is wrong.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“It is possible by this weekend ground troops will be sent into Iran”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 16:04 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the US had taken control of Iran's airspace and waterways "without boots on the ground", the Pentagon was only drawing up plans, and ground operations were still hypothetical as late as 16 July 2026. This row duplicates the same forecast from the re-upload of the same lecture.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. reviewed batch, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Wrong

    No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the US had taken control of Iran's airspace and waterways "without boots on the ground", the Pentagon was only drawing up plans, and ground operations were still hypothetical as late as 16 July 2026. This row duplicates the same forecast from the re-upload of the same lecture.

Restated in other lectures

  • Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
  • Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
  • Restated; folded in from the review queue as part of this thesis.
the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.