JL-059 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said
The US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.
Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 June 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.
What Prof Jiang Xueqin said
“high oil prices and inflation that this war would inevitably cause”
Our assessment
The research reading is "did not happen", filed against this claim's own candidate. Independent sources: 2, after collapsing same-owner, same-wire and same-host duplicates. The deadline was 2025-12-31 and has passed as of 2026-09-10. Researcher's summary: By the 30 December 2025 deadline the opposite had happened: Brent averaged 62.54 dollars in December 2025, down from 71.44 dollars in June 2025, US pump prices fell to 3.02 dollars a gallon, and CPI inflation was 2.7 percent, identical to June 2025. The mechanism did arrive later, with Brent at 117.29 dollars in April 2026 and CPI at 4.2 percent in May 2026, so the reasoning was directionally sound but roughly six months outside the window. PROPOSED, NOT DECIDED. Check the sources answer this claim AS WORDED and for the right period before accepting. That is the check no rule here can make, and it is what all seven withdrawn drafts of 3 August failed.
Evidence
This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.
Verdict history 3
- Issued automatically by staged-researchPending changed to Wrong
By the 30 December 2025 deadline the opposite had happened: Brent averaged 62.54 dollars in December 2025, down from 71.44 dollars in June 2025, US pump prices fell to 3.02 dollars a gallon, and CPI inflation was 2.7 percent, identical to June 2025. The mechanism did arrive later, with Brent at 117.29 dollars in April 2026 and CPI at 4.2 percent in May 2026, so the reasoning was directionally sound but roughly six months outside the window.
- Issued by the editorWrong changed to Pending
Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim. Scoring him on a clock he did not start is not a fair test, so the verdict is withdrawn rather than left standing. The claim itself is unchanged and remains open.
- Issued by the editorPending changed to Confirmed
The research reading is "did not happen", filed against this claim's own candidate. Independent sources: 2, after collapsing same-owner, same-wire and same-host duplicates. The deadline was 2025-12-31 and has passed as of 2026-09-10. Researcher's summary: By the 30 December 2025 deadline the opposite had happened: Brent averaged 62.54 dollars in December 2025, down from 71.44 dollars in June 2025, US pump prices fell to 3.02 dollars a gallon, and CPI inflation was 2.7 percent, identical to June 2025. The mechanism did arrive later, with Brent at 117.29 dollars in April 2026 and CPI at 4.2 percent in May 2026, so the reasoning was directionally sound but roughly six months outside the window. PROPOSED, NOT DECIDED. Check the sources answer this claim AS WORDED and for the right period before accepting. That is the check no rule here can make, and it is what all seven withdrawn drafts of 3 August failed.