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TimestampedLedger live97 on the record46 scored

JL-038 · Prof Jiang Xueqin · said

The US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.

Confirmedjudged 3 August 2026

Prof Jiang Xueqin said this on 18 June 2025. Our assessment, on the public evidence linked below, is confirmed.

What Prof Jiang Xueqin said

“Personally, I think the strategy won't work”
Watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, 5:24 (opens on YouTube in a new tab)

Our assessment

The Iranian government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed, and on 17 June President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the 14-point memorandum with Trump as head of the Islamic Republic. Trump said on 11 June he was very disappointed that Kurdish groups armed by the US kept the weapons rather than rising up.

This is our opinion, reached from the quote alongside it and the evidence linked here. How we score.

Verdict history 1

  1. reviewed batch, 3 August 2026
    Pending changed to Confirmed

    The Iranian government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed, and on 17 June President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the 14-point memorandum with Trump as head of the Islamic Republic. Trump said on 11 June he was very disappointed that Kurdish groups armed by the US kept the weapons rather than rising up.

the small print

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Every prediction here is taken from a public video appearance and linked back to the channel it came from. This is an independent, unaffiliated project, and nobody tracked here has been asked to take part.

Channels we watch. @PredictiveHistory, watching Prof Jiang Xueqin; @MarioNawfal, watching Prof Robert Pape.