ledger :: 3 claims of 97
3
confirmed
0
half right
0
wrong
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still open
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no end date
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3 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 rightIran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.2026-09-03oursIran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
- 2 rightThe United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.2026-12-31oursTrump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
- 3 rightWithin the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.2026-10-28hisAfter 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored