ledger :: 1 claim of 97
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wrong
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still open
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no end date
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1 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 halfWithin the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.2026-04-30hisThree pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored