ledger :: 2 claims of 97
2
confirmed
0
half right
0
wrong
0
still open
0
no end date
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2 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
- 2 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored