ledger :: 8 claims of 97
8
confirmed
0
half right
0
wrong
0
still open
0
no end date
--%
8 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
filters
StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 rightThe US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.2026-06-03oursThe war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
- 2 rightIran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.2026-09-03oursIran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
- 3 rightThe global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.2026-07-03hisThe World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
- 4 rightBahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.2026-09-03oursIranian missiles and drones struck US Naval Forces Central Command in Manama on 28 February 2026, the first day of the war, at a base hosting about 8,300 sailors.
- 5 rightSaudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.2026-06-30oursIranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
- 6 rightTrump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.2026-06-01hisTrump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
- 7 rightThe United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.2026-12-31oursTrump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
- 8 rightWithin the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.2026-10-28hisAfter 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored