The ledger, filtered
7 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
0 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-085said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-084said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-051said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Dec 2024 - JL-066said 22 May 2024Pending20 Jan 2029
- JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-007said 24 Apr 2024Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
Settled by Settled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-006said 24 Apr 2024Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Settled by Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
Pending8 May 2030