The ledger

Every approved prediction, timestamped and scored. Filters are shareable via the URL.

StatusAll pending confirmed partial wrong unverifiable superseded

ThemeAll AI Bubble and Nationalisation Argentina Ascendancy Empire in Decline: US Institutions Forever War: Energy Hard Money and Debasement Rearmament and War Economy

12 of 14 predictions

JL-0022024
If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0032024
The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
- Forever War: Energy
- Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending2030-05-08
JL-0042024
A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending2026-04-24
JL-0052024
As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0062024
Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0072024
Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0082024
Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
- Forever War: Energy
- Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending
JL-0092024
If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0102024
If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
- Forever War: Energy
- Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Pending
JL-0112024
If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending2026-12-31
JL-0122024
In a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending
JL-0132024
In a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.
- Forever War: Energy
Pending