ledger :: 7 claims of 97
5
confirmed
0
half right
0
wrong
2
still open
0
no end date
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5 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 rightThe United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.2025-08-18oursTrump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
- 2 rightAmerica and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.2026-06-18oursNo US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
- 3 rightThe US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.2026-06-18oursThe government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
- 4 rightIn the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.2045-01-01oursV-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
- 5 runningBy the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.2070-01-01ours
- 6 rightThe United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.2026-06-30oursThe US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
- 7 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
2 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored