ledger :: 11 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
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wrong
11
still open
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no end date
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0 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08oursSettled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
- 2 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24oursSettled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
- 3 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08oursSettled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
- 4 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08oursSettled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
- 5 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
- 6 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
- 7 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
- 8 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.!2024-06-30his
- 9 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
- 10 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
- 11 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
11 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored