The ledger, filtered
40 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
0 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-048said 20 July 2026Pending20 July 2027
- JL-022said 11 July 2026In a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Aug 2026 - JL-042said 12 May 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-065said 21 Apr 2026Pending21 Apr 2027
- JL-087said 9 Apr 2026Pending7 Nov 2028
- JL-088said 9 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-075said 7 Apr 2026If the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 June 2026 - JL-077said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Apr 2027
- JL-076said 7 Apr 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-061said 7 Apr 2026If the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-073said 7 Apr 2026Pending7 Oct 2026
- JL-074said 7 Apr 2026If Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue7 July 2026 - JL-036said 2 Apr 2026If the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue15 Apr 2026 - JL-080said 26 Mar 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-082said 26 Mar 2026Pending31 Dec 2026
- JL-031said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2036
- JL-032said 24 Mar 2026Pending24 Mar 2046
- JL-070said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-071said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2028
- JL-072said 12 Mar 2026Pending12 Mar 2030
- JL-078said 3 Mar 2026The US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue3 June 2026 - JL-079said 3 Mar 2026Pending3 Mar 2027
- JL-033said 15 Jan 2026Pending15 Jan 2051
- JL-081said 15 Jan 2026Pending31 Dec 2050
- JL-086said 18 Dec 2025Pending18 Dec 2027
- JL-024said 29 Aug 2025Pending1 Jan 2070
- JL-060said 18 June 2025US air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-059said 18 June 2025The US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.
Our assessment Returned to pending on 9 September 2026. This verdict was issued automatically against a deadline of 31 December 2025 that this project set, not one the speaker stated: he named no time when he made the claim.
Overdue31 Dec 2025 - JL-085said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-083said 7 June 2024Pending30 Nov 2028
- JL-084said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-069said 31 May 2024Pending31 May 2044
- JL-051said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Dec 2024 - JL-052said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue30 June 2024 - JL-066said 22 May 2024Pending20 Jan 2029
- JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-001said 8 May 2024Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Settled by Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
Pending8 May 2034 - JL-014said 24 Apr 2024Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Settled by Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
Pending24 Apr 2034 - JL-007said 24 Apr 2024Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
Settled by Settled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-006said 24 Apr 2024Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Settled by Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
Pending8 May 2030