ledger :: 5 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
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wrong
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5 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 wrongVoter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.2024-12-31oursTurnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
- 2 wrongTrump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.2024-08-31oursTrump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
- 3 wrongUS college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.2024-12-31oursCampus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
- 4 wrongThe November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.2025-01-31hisTurnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
- 5 wrongMarine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.2024-09-15hisNational Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored