The ledger, filtered
10 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
10 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-020said 26 Mar 2026The United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).
Our assessment No US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-064said 18 July 2025Israel will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.
Our assessment The June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-016said 18 July 2025The Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.
Our assessment No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-025said 18 July 2025China and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.
Our assessment There was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-057said 18 June 2025The American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.
Our assessment A ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
Wrong9 Sept 2026 - JL-027said 13 June 2024Marine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.
Our assessment National Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-026said 7 June 2024The November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.
Our assessment Turnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-043said 5 June 2024US college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.
Our assessment Campus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-017said 17 May 2024Voter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.
Our assessment Turnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-019said 17 May 2024Trump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.
Our assessment Trump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
Wrong3 Aug 2026