ledger :: 4 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
4
wrong
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still open
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no end date
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4 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 wrongThe American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.2025-09-30hisA ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
- 2 wrongIsrael will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.2025-09-18hisThe June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
- 3 wrongChina and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.2026-07-18oursThere was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
- 4 wrongThe Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.2026-07-18oursNo battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored