The ledger
Every approved prediction, timestamped and scored. Filters are shareable via the URL.
18 of 84 predictions
- JL-039 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
Said 18 Dec 2025 30:07watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 30 June 2026Judged 3 Aug 20263 sourcesConfirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-086 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.
Said 18 Dec 2025 30:57watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 18 Dec 2027Pending18 Dec 2027 - JL-024 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
By the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.
Said 29 Aug 2025 36:18watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 1 Jan 2070Pending1 Jan 2070 - JL-047 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
V-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
Said 22 Aug 2025 50:54watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 1 Jan 2045Judged 3 Aug 20262 sourcesConfirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-064 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
Israel will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 July 2025 0:15watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 Sept 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-016 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
No battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
Said 18 July 2025 40:04watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 July 2026Judged 3 Aug 202615 sourcesWrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-025 Prof Jiang Xueqin
China and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.
There was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
Said 18 July 2025 40:36watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 July 2026Judged 3 Aug 20263 sourcesWrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-063 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 25 June 2025 3:27watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 31 Dec 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-062 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 25 June 2025 0:20watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 25 June 2026 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-057 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 June 2025 11:12watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 30 Sept 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-056 Prof Jiang Xueqin
Nuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 June 2025 12:58watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 31 Dec 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-059 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 June 2025 10:41watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 31 Dec 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-038 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
The government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
Said 18 June 2025 5:24watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 June 2026Judged 3 Aug 20264 sourcesConfirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-060 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
US air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 June 2025 5:45watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 31 Dec 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-055 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
America and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 June 2025 12:26watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 June 2026 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-058 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.
The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Said 18 June 2025 0:29watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 25 June 2025 passedIn reviewDeadline passed - JL-021 Prof Jiang Xueqin
China will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.
China sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
Said 18 June 2025 23:02watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 31 Dec 2025Judged 3 Aug 20265 sourcesConfirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-041 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Trump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
Said 18 Feb 2025 7:52watch Prof Jiang Xueqin say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 18 Aug 2025Judged 3 Aug 20263 sourcesConfirmed3 Aug 2026