ledger :: 7 claims of 97
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confirmed
7
half right
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wrong
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still open
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no end date
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7 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 halfA ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.2026-04-24hisThe premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
- 2 halfIf the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.he named no end dateoursThe European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
- 3 halfIn a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.he named no end dateoursRussia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
- 4 halfIn a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.he named no end dateoursChina kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
- 5 halfDespite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.he named no end dateoursIran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
- 6 halfAs Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.he named no end dateoursThe two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
- 7 halfWithin the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.2026-04-30hisThree pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored