ledger :: 20 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
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wrong
20
still open
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no end date
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0 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24oursSettled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
- 2 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08oursSettled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
- 3 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
- 4 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
- 5 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
- 6 runningBy the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.2070-01-01ours
- 7 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
- 8 runningIf current demographic trends continue, Muslims will come to control Europe within about 25 years, i.e. by roughly 2051.2051-01-15ours
- 9 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
- 10 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
- 11 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
- 12 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
- 13 runningWith the end of American hegemony, world trade will reorganize into mercantilist regional trading blocs rather than a single global system.2036-03-24ours
- 14 runningGermany and Russia will go to war against each other within roughly the next five to ten years, before later reconciling.2036-03-24ours
- 15 runningMigration flows from Africa and the Middle East into Europe, and from Latin America into the United States, will accelerate by roughly one hundred times.2036-03-24ours
- 16 runningImmigration-driven cultural tension will lead to civil conflict inside North America and Europe.2046-03-24ours
- 17 runningRussia and Germany will eventually form an alliance in Europe, within the ten-to-twenty-year horizon he describes.2046-03-24ours
- 18 runningThe Trump administration will move next to assert US authority over Greenland as an Arctic choke point.2027-04-07ours
- 19 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
- 20 runningArgentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.2027-07-20ours
20 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored