The ledger, filtered
8 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
8 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-053said 29 May 2024A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-067said 24 May 2024Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.
Our assessment Ali Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-068said 24 May 2024With Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.
Our assessment Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-015said 17 May 2024A majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.
Our assessment Four independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-018said 17 May 2024Trump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.
Our assessment Trump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-002said 8 May 2024If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
Our assessment Israel opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-011said 24 Apr 2024If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
Our assessment Trump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-009said 24 Apr 2024If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
Our assessment In June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026