ledger :: 11 claims of 97
11
confirmed
0
half right
0
wrong
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still open
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no end date
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11 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 rightThe United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.2025-08-18oursTrump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
- 2 rightAmerica and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.2026-06-18oursNo US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
- 3 rightThe United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.2025-06-25hisThe United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
- 4 rightChina will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursChina sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
- 5 rightNuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursNo nuclear weapon was used in the US-Israel-Iran war; the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions.
- 6 rightThe US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.2025-12-31oursThe Oil Prices are Higher, all over the world
- 7 rightThe US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.2026-06-18oursThe government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
- 8 rightNetanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.2025-12-31oursIsrael carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
- 9 rightDespite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.2026-06-25oursUS and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
- 10 rightIn the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.2045-01-01oursV-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
- 11 rightThe United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.2026-06-30oursThe US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored