ledger :: 9 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
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wrong
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9 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 rightIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.2026-12-31oursTrump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
- 2 rightIf a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.he named no end dateoursIn June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
- 3 rightIf Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.he named no end dateoursIsrael opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
- 4 rightA majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.2024-12-31hisFour independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
- 5 rightTrump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.2024-11-30hisTrump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
- 6 rightWith Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.2029-05-24oursAli Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
- 7 rightIran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.2029-05-24hisAli Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
- 8 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
- 9 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored