ledger :: 20 claims of 97
0
confirmed
0
half right
0
wrong
20
still open
0
no end date
--%
0 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
filters
StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
- 2 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
- 3 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
- 4 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
- 5 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
- 6 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
- 7 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
- 8 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
- 9 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
- 10 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
- 11 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
- 12 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
- 13 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
- 14 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
- 15 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
- 16 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
- 17 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
- 18 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
- 19 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
- 20 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
20 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored