ledger :: 11 claims of 97
2
confirmed
2
half right
2
wrong
5
still open
0
no end date
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6 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 halfIf the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.he named no end dateoursThe European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
- 2 halfDespite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.he named no end dateoursIran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
- 3 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24oursSettled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
- 4 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08oursSettled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
- 5 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
- 6 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
- 7 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
- 8 wrongUS college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.2024-12-31oursCampus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
- 9 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
- 10 wrongThe November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.2025-01-31hisTurnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
- 11 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate
5 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored