ledger :: 36 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
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wrong
36
still open
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no end date
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0 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 runningIf current demographic trends continue, Muslims will come to control Europe within about 25 years, i.e. by roughly 2051.2051-01-15ours
- 2 runningBy 2050, white Americans will no longer be a majority of the United States population.2050-12-31his
- 3 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
- 4 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
- 5 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
- 6 runningThe United States will have the manufacturing capacity to sustain a war against Iran in roughly five years (around 2031), but does not have it now.2031-03-05ours
- 7 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
- 8 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
- 9 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
- 10 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
- 11 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
- 12 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
- 13 runningNationalism and remilitarization will be a defining global trend of the next ten to twenty years, with resilient nations mobilizing their young to fight.2046-03-24ours
- 14 runningWith the end of American hegemony, world trade will reorganize into mercantilist regional trading blocs rather than a single global system.2036-03-24ours
- 15 runningGermany and Russia will go to war against each other within roughly the next five to ten years, before later reconciling.2036-03-24ours
- 16 runningMigration flows from Africa and the Middle East into Europe, and from Latin America into the United States, will accelerate by roughly one hundred times.2036-03-24ours
- 17 runningImmigration-driven cultural tension will lead to civil conflict inside North America and Europe.2046-03-24ours
- 18 runningResource-rich nations will institute AI surveillance states ('techno-Marxism') to ration resources and control their populations, producing sharp class stratification.2046-03-24ours
- 19 runningRussia and Germany will eventually form an alliance in Europe, within the ten-to-twenty-year horizon he describes.2046-03-24ours
- 20 runningProf Jiang will end the semester with four lectures on The Divine Comedy delivered once every two weeks, starting the Friday after this lecture.!2026-06-30ours
- 21 runningUS public support for the Iran war, currently around 40 percent, will decline as the war continues.2026-12-31ours
- 22 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
- 23 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
- 24 runningThe Trump administration will move next to assert US authority over Greenland as an Arctic choke point.2027-04-07ours
- 25 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
- 26 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
- 27 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
- 28 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
- 29 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
- 30 runningDonald Trump will pursue a third presidential term.2028-11-07ours
- 31 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
- 32 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
- 33 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
- 34 runningOpenAI will turn ChatGPT into a sexual companion product in order to attract more users.2026-12-31ours
- 35 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
- 36 runningArgentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.2027-07-20ours
36 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored