ledger :: 11 claims of 97
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11 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
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- 1 wrongVoter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.2024-12-31oursTurnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
- 2 wrongTrump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.2024-08-31oursTrump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
- 3 wrongUS college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.2024-12-31oursCampus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
- 4 wrongThe November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.2025-01-31hisTurnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
- 5 wrongMarine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.2024-09-15hisNational Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.
- 6 wrongThe American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.2025-09-30hisA ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
- 7 wrongIsrael will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.2025-09-18hisThe June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
- 8 wrongChina and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.2026-07-18oursThere was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
- 9 wrongThe Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.2026-07-18oursNo battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
- 10 wrongThe United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).2026-03-30hisNo US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
- 11 wrongIn a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.2026-08-31oursThis Prediction does not Happen, Thank GOD
0 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored