The ledger

Every approved prediction, timestamped and scored. Filters are shareable via the URL.

StatusAll (14)Pending (5)Confirmed (3)Partial (6)Wrong (0)Unverifiable (0)Superseded (0)

ThemeAll AI Bubble and Nationalisation Argentina Ascendancy Empire in Decline: US Institutions Forever War: Energy Hard Money and Debasement Rearmament and War Economy

YearAll 2024

14 of 14 predictions

JL-002 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
The condition occurred. Israel opened a war with Iran on 13 June 2025 with large-scale airstrikes on nuclear and military targets, and Iran struck back at Israeli cities in a 12-day interstate war.
Said 8 May 2024 32:13watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Confirmed29 July 2026
JL-003 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Said 8 May 2024 0:14watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 8 May 2030
Pending8 May 2030
JL-001 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Said 8 May 2024 35:34watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tab
Pending
JL-014 Prof Jiang Xueqin Empire in Decline: US Institutions
Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Said 24 Apr 2024 41:25watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudgeable by 24 Apr 2034
Pending24 Apr 2034
JL-004 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
The premise held; the headline event did not. Condition: Iran and Israel committed to war. Confirmed by the 12-day June 2025 conflict and the joint US-Israeli campaign of 28 February to 8 April 2026.
Said 24 Apr 2024 4:17watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 24 Apr 2026Judged 29 July 20264 sources
Partial29 July 2026
JL-005 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
The condition holds; Israeli and US attacks continued through the June 2025 twelve-day war, the 2026 war, and July 2026 strikes.
Said 24 Apr 2024 18:54watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Partial29 July 2026
JL-008 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
The condition, a US-Israel war against Iran, occurred: the June 2025 12-day war, then full-scale joint war from 28 February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Said 24 Apr 2024 10:37watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Partial29 July 2026
JL-009 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
Condition met. War with Iran broke out in June 2025 and again at larger scale in 2026. Consequent met.
Said 24 Apr 2024 21:09watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Confirmed29 July 2026
JL-010 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
The condition occurred: the US struck Iran in June 2025 and has fought a joint war alongside Israel since February 2026.
Said 24 Apr 2024 31:00watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Partial29 July 2026
JL-011 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
Condition met: Trump won the 2024 election. Consequent: Israel opened the 12-day war on 13 June 2025, with Trump ordering US strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June.
Said 24 Apr 2024 43:23watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabDeadline 31 Dec 2026Judged 29 July 20264 sources
Confirmed29 July 2026
JL-012 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
In a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
The condition, a US-Iran war, occurred in June 2025 and at full scale from February 2026. The consequent held in part.
Said 24 Apr 2024 35:06watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Partial29 July 2026
JL-013 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
In a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.
The condition occurred twice: the June 2025 US strikes on Iran and the larger US-Israeli war begun 28 February 2026, still active.
Said 24 Apr 2024 21:17watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tabJudged 29 July 20264 sources
Partial29 July 2026
JL-006 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Said 24 Apr 2024 33:28watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tab
Pending
JL-007 Prof Jiang Xueqin Forever War: Energy
Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
Said 24 Apr 2024 16:29watch him say it, opens on YouTube in a new tab
Pending