Ledger · Timestamped

ledger :: 97 claims

confirmed

half right

wrong

still open

no end date

68%

of 46 resolved

Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

playlist :: oldest first

1 halfA ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.2026-04-24hisThe premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
2 halfIf the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.he named no end dateoursThe European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
3 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08oursSettled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
4 rightIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.2026-12-31oursTrump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
5 halfIn a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.he named no end dateoursRussia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
6 halfIn a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.he named no end dateoursChina kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
7 rightIf a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.he named no end dateoursIn June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
8 halfDespite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.he named no end dateoursIran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
9 halfAs Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.he named no end dateoursThe two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
10 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24oursSettled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
11 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08oursSettled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
12 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08oursSettled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
13 rightIf Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.he named no end dateoursIsrael opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
14 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
15 rightA majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.2024-12-31hisFour independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
16 wrongVoter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.2024-12-31oursTurnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
17 rightTrump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.2024-11-30hisTrump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
18 wrongTrump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.2024-08-31oursTrump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
19 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
20 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
21 rightWith Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.2029-05-24oursAli Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
22 rightIran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.2029-05-24hisAli Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
23 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.!2024-06-30his
24 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
25 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
26 wrongUS college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.2024-12-31oursCampus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
27 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
28 wrongThe November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.2025-01-31hisTurnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
29 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
30 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate
31 wrongMarine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.2024-09-15hisNational Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.
32 rightThe United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.2025-08-18oursTrump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
33 rightAmerica and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.2026-06-18oursNo US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
34 rightThe United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.2025-06-25hisThe United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
35 rightChina will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursChina sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
36 rightNuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursNo nuclear weapon was used in the US-Israel-Iran war; the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions.
37 rightThe US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.2025-12-31oursThe Oil Prices are Higher, all over the world
38 rightThe US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.2026-06-18oursThe government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
39 wrongThe American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.2025-09-30hisA ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
40 runningUS air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.!2025-12-31ours
41 rightNetanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.2025-12-31oursIsrael carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
42 rightDespite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.2026-06-25oursUS and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
43 wrongIsrael will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.2025-09-18hisThe June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
44 wrongChina and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.2026-07-18oursThere was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
45 wrongThe Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.2026-07-18oursNo battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
46 rightIn the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.2045-01-01oursV-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
47 runningBy the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.2070-01-01ours
48 rightThe United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.2026-06-30oursThe US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
49 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
50 runningIf current demographic trends continue, Muslims will come to control Europe within about 25 years, i.e. by roughly 2051.2051-01-15ours
51 runningBy 2050, white Americans will no longer be a majority of the United States population.2050-12-31his
52 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
53 rightThe US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.2026-06-03oursThe war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
54 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
55 rightIran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.2026-09-03oursIran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
56 rightThe global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.2026-07-03hisThe World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
57 rightBahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.2026-09-03oursIranian missiles and drones struck US Naval Forces Central Command in Manama on 28 February 2026, the first day of the war, at a base hosting about 8,300 sailors.
58 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
59 halfWithin the next few weeks the United States will visibly pursue a three-pillar strategy in Iran: decapitation of leadership, aerial bombardment, and arming and bribing ethnic insurgent groups.2026-04-30hisThree pillars were claimed and two and a half are evidenced. Decapitation and the air campaign are documented, the arming half of the third is reported, and the bribing half has no payment record.
60 runningThe United States will have the manufacturing capacity to sustain a war against Iran in roughly five years (around 2031), but does not have it now.2031-03-05ours
61 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
62 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
63 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
64 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
65 rightSaudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.2026-06-30oursIranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
66 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
67 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
68 runningNationalism and remilitarization will be a defining global trend of the next ten to twenty years, with resilient nations mobilizing their young to fight.2046-03-24ours
69 runningWith the end of American hegemony, world trade will reorganize into mercantilist regional trading blocs rather than a single global system.2036-03-24ours
70 runningGermany and Russia will go to war against each other within roughly the next five to ten years, before later reconciling.2036-03-24ours
71 runningMigration flows from Africa and the Middle East into Europe, and from Latin America into the United States, will accelerate by roughly one hundred times.2036-03-24ours
72 runningImmigration-driven cultural tension will lead to civil conflict inside North America and Europe.2046-03-24ours
73 runningResource-rich nations will institute AI surveillance states ('techno-Marxism') to ration resources and control their populations, producing sharp class stratification.2046-03-24ours
74 runningRussia and Germany will eventually form an alliance in Europe, within the ten-to-twenty-year horizon he describes.2046-03-24ours
75 runningProf Jiang will end the semester with four lectures on The Divine Comedy delivered once every two weeks, starting the Friday after this lecture.!2026-06-30ours
76 runningUS public support for the Iran war, currently around 40 percent, will decline as the war continues.2026-12-31ours
77 wrongThe United States will send ground troops into Iran, possibly as soon as the weekend following this lecture (28-29 March 2026).2026-03-30hisNo US ground troops entered Iran on the weekend of 28 and 29 March 2026. Hegseth said the US had taken Iran's airspace and waterways “without boots on the ground”.
78 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
79 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
80 rightTrump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.2026-06-01hisTrump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
81 runningThe Trump administration will move next to assert US authority over Greenland as an Arctic choke point.2027-04-07ours
82 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
83 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
84 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
85 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
86 rightThe United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.2026-12-31oursTrump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
87 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
88 runningDonald Trump will pursue a third presidential term.2028-11-07ours
89 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
90 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
91 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
92 rightWithin the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.2026-10-28hisAfter 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.
93 runningOpenAI will turn ChatGPT into a sexual companion product in order to attract more users.2026-12-31ours
94 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
95 wrongIn a few weeks time, there will be a massive global emergency including food shortages, inflation, and a skyrocketing oil price.2026-08-31oursThis Prediction does not Happen, Thank GOD
96 neverIf Argentina wins the World Cup and Messi is the hero of the game, then Messi will become the next president of Argentina.2031-07-18oursSpain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on 19 July 2026, the day after he said it, so the “if” failed and can never now be met. This is not a judgement on whether Messi will enter Argentine politics.
97 runningArgentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.2027-07-20ours

50 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored