ledger :: 28 claims of 97
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confirmed
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half right
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wrong
28
still open
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no end date
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0 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08oursSettled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
- 2 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08oursSettled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
- 3 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
- 4 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
- 5 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
- 6 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
- 7 runningUS air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.!2025-12-31ours
- 8 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
- 9 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
- 10 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
- 11 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
- 12 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
- 13 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
- 14 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
- 15 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
- 16 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
- 17 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
- 18 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
- 19 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
- 20 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
- 21 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
- 22 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
- 23 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
- 24 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
- 25 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
- 26 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
- 27 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
- 28 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
28 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored