Ledger · Timestamped

ledger :: 17 claims of 97

confirmed

half right

wrong

still open

no end date

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11 of 20 resolved

Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

playlist :: oldest first

1 halfA ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.2026-04-24hisThe premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
2 halfIf the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.he named no end dateoursThe European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
3 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08oursSettled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
4 rightIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.2026-12-31oursTrump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
5 halfIn a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.he named no end dateoursRussia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
6 halfIn a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.he named no end dateoursChina kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
7 rightIf a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.he named no end dateoursIn June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
8 halfDespite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.he named no end dateoursIran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
9 halfAs Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.he named no end dateoursThe two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
10 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08oursSettled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
11 rightIf Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.he named no end dateoursIsrael opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
12 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
13 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
14 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
15 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
16 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
17 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate

6 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored