ledger :: 18 claims of 97
11
confirmed
0
half right
4
wrong
3
still open
0
no end date
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15 of 20 resolved
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
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StatusStatus: All (97)Status: Still open (50)Status: No end date (0)Status: Confirmed (28)Status: Partial (7)Status: Wrong (11)Status: Unverifiable (0)Status: Superseded (0)
playlist :: oldest first
- 1 rightThe United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.2025-08-18oursTrump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
- 2 rightAmerica and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.2026-06-18oursNo US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
- 3 rightThe United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.2025-06-25hisThe United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
- 4 rightChina will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursChina sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
- 5 rightNuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursNo nuclear weapon was used in the US-Israel-Iran war; the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions.
- 6 rightThe US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.2025-12-31oursThe Oil Prices are Higher, all over the world
- 7 rightThe US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.2026-06-18oursThe government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
- 8 wrongThe American and Israeli bombing campaign against Iran will continue for the next few months.2025-09-30hisA ceasefire announced 23 June took effect 24 June 2025, and no US or Israeli strike hit Iran again until 28 February 2026, an eight month gap.
- 9 runningUS air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.!2025-12-31ours
- 10 rightNetanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.2025-12-31oursIsrael carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
- 11 rightDespite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.2026-06-25oursUS and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
- 12 wrongIsrael will resume air strikes against Iran in the very near future.2025-09-18hisThe June 2025 ceasefire held through the whole window and the next Israeli and US strikes on Iran came on 28 February 2026.
- 13 wrongChina and Russia will have a falling out, visible very quickly.2026-07-18oursThere was no falling out by 17 July 2026. Putin and Xi signed a multipolar declaration and about 20 agreements in Beijing on 20 May 2026; the visible strain is commercial, over gas prices.
- 14 wrongThe Ukraine war will shift to a decisive battle at Odessa, with Russia encircling the city and NATO making its final stand there.2026-07-18oursNo battle for Odessa took place by 17 July 2026. The city was struck from the air rather than encircled, and no NATO force made a stand there.
- 15 rightIn the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.2045-01-01oursV-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
- 16 runningBy the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.2070-01-01ours
- 17 rightThe United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.2026-06-30oursThe US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
- 18 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
3 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored