Ledger · Timestamped

ledger :: 50 claims of 97

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wrong

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0 of 20 resolved

Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

playlist :: oldest first

1 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08oursSettled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
2 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24oursSettled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
3 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08oursSettled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
4 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08oursSettled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
5 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
6 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
7 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
8 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.!2024-06-30his
9 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
10 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
11 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
12 runningUS air strikes will not inflict any real lasting damage on Iran's infrastructure.!2025-12-31ours
13 runningBy the time current young people retire, there will be no money left in the pension fund for them.2070-01-01ours
14 runningThe United States will go to war with Iran, causing devastating damage to both countries.2027-12-18ours
15 runningIf current demographic trends continue, Muslims will come to control Europe within about 25 years, i.e. by roughly 2051.2051-01-15ours
16 runningBy 2050, white Americans will no longer be a majority of the United States population.2050-12-31his
17 runningUS and Israeli forces will attack Iran's water supply, dams, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-03-03ours
18 runningThe US and Israel will continue their air campaign against Tehran despite its strategic ineffectiveness.!2026-06-03ours
19 runningIran will respond to the American campaign with guerrilla warfare, sheltering in its mountains while launching harassment strikes with drones and rockets against GCC states and Israel.!2026-09-05ours
20 runningThe United States will have the manufacturing capacity to sustain a war against Iran in roughly five years (around 2031), but does not have it now.2031-03-05ours
21 runningNo nuclear weapons will be used by any party during the current US-Iran war.2028-03-10ours
22 runningIf the US deploys ground troops it will lose the war, after which CENTCOM's Middle East military role will transfer to Israel.2030-03-12ours
23 runningThe United States will not withdraw from the Middle East, because its economy depends on remaining engaged there.2028-03-12ours
24 runningIsrael will expand its territory as a result of this war.2030-03-12ours
25 runningOver the next ten to twenty years there will be large-scale deindustrialization and deurbanization, with urban populations, especially the young, moving back to the countryside.2046-03-24ours
26 runningIsrael will become the dominant regional hegemon of the Middle East, establishing a 'Pax Judaica'.2046-03-24ours
27 runningNationalism and remilitarization will be a defining global trend of the next ten to twenty years, with resilient nations mobilizing their young to fight.2046-03-24ours
28 runningWith the end of American hegemony, world trade will reorganize into mercantilist regional trading blocs rather than a single global system.2036-03-24ours
29 runningGermany and Russia will go to war against each other within roughly the next five to ten years, before later reconciling.2036-03-24ours
30 runningMigration flows from Africa and the Middle East into Europe, and from Latin America into the United States, will accelerate by roughly one hundred times.2036-03-24ours
31 runningImmigration-driven cultural tension will lead to civil conflict inside North America and Europe.2046-03-24ours
32 runningResource-rich nations will institute AI surveillance states ('techno-Marxism') to ration resources and control their populations, producing sharp class stratification.2046-03-24ours
33 runningRussia and Germany will eventually form an alliance in Europe, within the ten-to-twenty-year horizon he describes.2046-03-24ours
34 runningProf Jiang will end the semester with four lectures on The Divine Comedy delivered once every two weeks, starting the Friday after this lecture.!2026-06-30ours
35 runningUS public support for the Iran war, currently around 40 percent, will decline as the war continues.2026-12-31ours
36 runningIf the war continues and ground forces are used, the world will run out of oil by mid-April 2026, on a JP Morgan estimate.!2026-04-15his
37 runningIf Iran strikes GCC energy infrastructure in retaliation, the world will lose 20 percent of its energy supply.!2026-07-07ours
38 runningThe Trump administration will move next to assert US authority over Greenland as an Arctic choke point.2027-04-07ours
39 runningIf the United States continues fighting an air war over Iran, it will lose increasing numbers of aircraft due to pilot fatigue, maintenance strain, and Iranian adaptation.2026-12-31ours
40 runningIf the United States attacks Iranian civilian infrastructure such as power plants, Iran will retaliate by striking GCC oil fields, desalination plants, and universities.!2026-06-07ours
41 runningFuel prices will rise so sharply and so quickly that the civilian aviation industry effectively collapses, with air travel costing as much as ten times current prices.!2026-10-07ours
42 runningIf the United States destroys Iranian power plants, Iran will commit to total war aimed at destroying the American military presence in the Middle East.!2026-07-07ours
43 runningIf the US-Iran war drags on, the world economy will suffer severely.2026-12-31ours
44 runningDonald Trump will pursue a third presidential term.2028-11-07ours
45 runningRussia and China will feel the strain of the US-Iran war and may pressure Iran to end it.2026-12-31ours
46 runningIf the ceasefire fails and the war resumes, the United States will begin targeting Iranian civilian infrastructure such as bridges, universities, reservoirs, and power plants.2027-04-21ours
47 runningThe Iran-United States war will continue for years rather than months, possibly lasting 10 to 20 years.2027-04-21ours
48 runningOpenAI will turn ChatGPT into a sexual companion product in order to attract more users.2026-12-31ours
49 runningThe US will launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly as early as October 2025, or after the November 2026 midterm elections.2027-01-01ours
50 runningArgentina will reclaim the Falkland Islands with the support of the United States within the next year.2027-07-20ours

50 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored