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Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

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1 rightIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.2026-12-31oursTrump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
2 rightIf a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.he named no end dateoursIn June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
3 rightIf Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.he named no end dateoursIsrael opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
4 rightA majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.2024-12-31hisFour independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
5 rightTrump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.2024-11-30hisTrump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
6 rightWith Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.2029-05-24oursAli Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
7 rightIran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.2029-05-24hisAli Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
8 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
9 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate
10 rightThe United States will very soon extend its trade war beyond Canada and Mexico to the European Union.2025-08-18oursTrump announced a 20 percent tariff on EU goods on 2 April 2025, well inside the deadline, settling at 15 percent under the framework of 27 July 2025.
11 rightAmerica and Israel will not be able to occupy Iran, even if they decapitate its central leadership.2026-06-18oursNo US or Israeli occupation of Iran took place by 17 June 2026 despite Khamenei's killing on 28 February, and the memorandum signed that day pulled US forces back from Iran's vicinity.
12 rightThe United States will begin bombing Iran within the next few days.2025-06-25hisThe United States bombed Iran on the night of 21 to 22 June 2025 in Operation Midnight Hammer, dropping 14 GBU-57 bunker-busters on Fordow and Natanz and firing about 30 Tomahawks at Isfahan.
13 rightChina will not get involved in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursChina sent no forces and confined itself to condemnation and calls for de-escalation. The qualifier is commercial: six Chinese firms were sanctioned in April 2025 over propellant ingredients.
14 rightNuclear weapons will not be used at any point in the US-Israel-Iran war.2025-12-31oursNo nuclear weapon was used in the US-Israel-Iran war; the June 2025 and February 2026 campaigns were fought entirely with conventional munitions.
15 rightThe US-Iran war will cause high oil prices and inflation that American consumers must absorb.2025-12-31oursThe Oil Prices are Higher, all over the world
16 rightThe US regime-change strategy of bombs, propaganda, and money will fail to topple the Iranian government.2026-06-18oursThe government was not toppled. The Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 9 March 2026, nine days after his father was killed.
17 rightNetanyahu will keep pushing for war and Israel will continue to initiate offensive military action in the conflict with Iran.2025-12-31oursIsrael carried out at least 10,631 attacks between 1 January and 5 December, attacked at least six countries in 2025, and Netanyahu told the Knesset on 10 November 2025 that the war had not ended.
18 rightDespite the announced ceasefire, the United States, Israel, and Iran will continue toward war with one another rather than settle into peace.2026-06-25oursUS and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Khamenei on 28 February 2026, fighting ran for months, and a 14-point memorandum signed on 17 June 2026 was being violated by 25 June.
19 rightIn the Western world (United States and Europe), there will be a decline of democracy and freedom, with these nations becoming more authoritarian.2045-01-01oursV-Dem's 2026 report finds democracy in Western Europe and North America at its lowest in over 50 years, 18 years before the deadline, though the decline was already documented when he said it.
20 rightThe United States will launch a military attack on Venezuela, and possibly on other South American countries.2026-06-30oursThe US struck Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and captured Nicolas Maduro, then struck inside Ecuador on 3 and 6 March, so the second South American country materialised too.
21 rightThe US-Iran war that began in late February 2026 will last at least many weeks, and possibly years.2026-06-03oursThe war ran more than 13 weeks and was still generating strikes on 6 June, clearing the many-weeks threshold before the deadline. The many-years branch remains unsettled.
22 rightIran will close the Strait of Hormuz in order to strangle the global economy.2026-09-03oursIran shut the strait after the 2 March 2026 strikes and the IRGC declared it closed until further notice on 12 July. Note the closure was already under way when this clip published.
23 rightThe global economy will suffer greatly over the few months following the lecture.2026-07-03hisThe World Bank cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5 percent on 11 June, the weakest since the pandemic, after Brent rose from 61 to 118 dollars a barrel in the first quarter.
24 rightBahrain will become one of the major centers of the US-Iran conflict.2026-09-03oursIranian missiles and drones struck US Naval Forces Central Command in Manama on 28 February 2026, the first day of the war, at a base hosting about 8,300 sailors.
25 rightSaudi Arabia will become a flashpoint in the Iran war.2026-06-30oursIranian drones hit the Ras Tanura refinery on 2 March 2026, four missiles aimed at Riyadh were intercepted in mid-March, and Riyadh struck inside Iran in late March, all before the deadline.
26 rightTrump will visit China in May, as part of China paying off both Russia and the United States to keep oceanic trade open.2026-06-01hisTrump was in Beijing from 13 to 15 May 2026 and met Xi on 14 May. The trip had been rescheduled publicly before the video, and the payoff mechanism involving Russia is not established.
27 rightThe United States will establish its own choke point over the Strait of Hormuz, including the option of blockading it.2026-12-31oursTrump declared the US “guardian of the Hormuz Strait” on 13 July 2026, reinstated the naval blockade and demanded 20 percent of all cargo shipped; transits fell to 39 in a week.
28 rightWithin the next few months the United States will shift its Iran campaign to a strategy of economic strangulation, stoking ethnic tension, and destroying civilian infrastructure such as water, power, and transport networks.2026-10-28hisAfter 8 July 2026, US sanctions and a blockade began; the IMF projected 6.1 percent Iranian contraction and 68.9 percent inflation, and June and July 2026 strikes hit water, bridges and railways.

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