Ledger · Timestamped

ledger :: 31 claims of 97

confirmed

half right

wrong

still open

no end date

60%

of 20 resolved

Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half, and no rate is published below 20 resolved calls, filtered or not. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.

playlist :: oldest first

1 halfA ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.2026-04-24hisThe premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
2 halfIf the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.he named no end dateoursThe European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
3 runningBefore any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.2030-05-08oursSettled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
4 rightIf Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.2026-12-31oursTrump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
5 halfIn a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.he named no end dateoursRussia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
6 halfIn a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.he named no end dateoursChina kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
7 rightIf a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.he named no end dateoursIn June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
8 halfDespite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.he named no end dateoursIran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
9 halfAs Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.he named no end dateoursThe two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
10 runningOver the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.2034-04-24oursSettled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
11 runningDespite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.2030-05-08oursSettled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
12 runningChristian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.2034-05-08oursSettled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
13 rightIf Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.he named no end dateoursIsrael opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
14 runningThe United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.2030-05-08hisSettled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
15 rightA majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.2024-12-31hisFour independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
16 wrongVoter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.2024-12-31oursTurnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
17 rightTrump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.2024-11-30hisTrump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
18 wrongTrump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.2024-08-31oursTrump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
19 runningIf Trump becomes president for a second term, the United States will very likely go to war with Iran.2029-01-20ours
20 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.!2024-12-31ours
21 rightWith Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.2029-05-24oursAli Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
22 rightIran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.2029-05-24hisAli Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
23 runningIf the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.!2024-06-30his
24 rightA war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.2028-05-29hisThe United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
25 runningWithin 10 to 20 years the world will become multipolar, with different regional hegemons replacing sole United States dominance.2044-05-31his
26 wrongUS college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.2024-12-31oursCampus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
27 runningOnce back in office, Trump will try to stay in power for life, for example by running as vice-president in 2028 with his son Don Jr. as the presidential candidate.2028-11-30his
28 wrongThe November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.2025-01-31hisTurnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
29 runningWithin roughly two to three years of returning to office, Trump will start a war with Iran to win over the deep state and secure the 2028 election.2027-06-07his
30 rightThe United States, under a re-elected Trump, will go to war with Iran, driven by the need to protect the petrodollar.2029-01-20oursThis seems to be accurate
31 wrongMarine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.2024-09-15hisNational Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.

11 of these are waiting on evidence and will be scored when it is in. :: how a claim is scored