The ledger, filtered
31 claims of 84
Every approved prediction, timestamped to the second it was said and scored against public evidence. A partial counts half. Filters are shareable: they live in the URL.
19 of 20 resolved. A success rate for this slice of the ledger appears at 20 scored verdicts, a floor announced before scoring began. Until then, counts only.
- JL-027said 13 June 2024Marine Le Pen's party may win France's snap election and be governing France within about three months of June 2024.
Our assessment National Rally finished third on 7 July 2024 with 139 seats, and by the deadline France was run by Michel Barnier with no RN ministers. The surge was right; the governing was not.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-085said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-083said 7 June 2024Pending30 Nov 2028
- JL-084said 7 June 2024Pending7 June 2027
- JL-026said 7 June 2024The November 2024 US presidential election will have one of the lowest voter turnouts in American history.
Our assessment Turnout was among the highest in more than a century rather than the lowest: the Census Bureau put it at 65.3 percent of the citizen voting-age population.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-043said 5 June 2024US college protests over the Gaza war will expand in the fall of 2024.
Our assessment Campus protest activity fell rather than expanded: 3,220 pro-Palestinian actions in the first half of 2024 against 1,151 in the second, with student arrests dropping from 3,572 to 88.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-069said 31 May 2024Pending31 May 2044
- JL-053said 29 May 2024A war between the United States and Iran will very likely break out within two to four years of May 2024.
Our assessment The United States struck three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and launched a full air campaign on 28 February 2026, well inside the two-to-four-year window.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-067said 24 May 2024Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, aged 85, will die within the next five years.
Our assessment Ali Khamenei died on 28 February 2026, killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran, about 21 months after the 24 May 2024 claim.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-051said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard killed Raisi, Iran will escalate against the United States and Israel, including accelerating its nuclear program.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue31 Dec 2024 - JL-068said 24 May 2024With Raisi dead, Mojtaba Khamenei is the most likely person to become Iran's next supreme leader.
Our assessment Ali Khamenei was killed in joint US and Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February 2026, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts named his son Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader on 8 March 2026.
Confirmed9 Sept 2026 - JL-052said 24 May 2024If the Revolutionary Guard was behind Raisi's death, Vice President Mohammad Mokhber will win Iran's presidential election in late June 2024.
Status The deadline has passed and the evidence is under review.
Overdue30 June 2024 - JL-066said 22 May 2024Pending20 Jan 2029
- JL-015said 17 May 2024A majority of women voters will again vote Democratic in the 2024 election.
Our assessment Four independent measurement systems put women between 53 and 55 percent Democratic in November 2024: Edison, AP VoteCast, Pew's validated voter study and the Catalist voter file.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-017said 17 May 2024Voter turnout in the 2024 election will be depressed because the electorate dislikes both candidates.
Our assessment Turnout was 63.9 percent of eligible voters with about 156.3 million ballots cast, the second highest rate since 1908.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-018said 17 May 2024Trump will win the November 2024 US presidential election.
Our assessment Trump won the 5 November 2024 election with 312 electoral votes to Harris's 226, in the official FEC tally.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-019said 17 May 2024Trump will choose Nikki Haley as his vice-presidential running mate.
Our assessment Trump named Senator JD Vance on 15 July 2024, having already posted publicly on 11 May, six days before this video, that Haley was not under consideration.
Wrong3 Aug 2026 - JL-003said 8 May 2024The United States will eventually invade Iran, possibly within two to six years of May 2024.
Settled by Settled the day US ground forces enter Iran, or on 8 May 2030 if they never have.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-002said 8 May 2024If Israel goes to war with Iran, the United States will fight that war on Israel's behalf.
Our assessment Israel opened war with Iran on 13 June 2025, and the United States bombed Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on 21 June, then fought alongside Israel again from February 2026.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-001said 8 May 2024Christian Zionism and dispensationalist premillennialism will become more popular religious beliefs in America over time.
Settled by Settled by long-run survey evidence that these beliefs are growing, or are not, in America.
Pending8 May 2034 - JL-008said 24 Apr 2024Despite their military dominance, the US and Israel may be unable to win a war against Iran because Iran would rely on asymmetric warfare.
Our assessment Iran's reliance on asymmetric warfare is confirmed, but whether the US and Israel can win is still open: the April ceasefire collapsed and the Council on Foreign Relations judges the conflict unresolved.
Partial29 July 2026 - JL-010said 24 Apr 2024If the US fought a war against Iran now, it would have to fight alone, with NATO and Middle Eastern states such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan refusing to take part.
Our assessment The European half held, with no NATO role and Spain refusing its bases. The Middle Eastern half did not: Saudi aircraft flew combat missions alongside American aircraft on 28 July 2026.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-005said 24 Apr 2024As Israel and the US continue acting aggressively toward Iran, the Iranian population will progressively unite against the Americans.
Our assessment The two instruments disagree. A telephone survey inside Iran shows the predicted unity; an online panel of more than 30,000 shows 70 to 80 percent rejecting the Islamic Republic, and anti-regime protests began in December 2025.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-014said 24 Apr 2024Over the next ten years the US will face serious trouble from the combination of overextension, debt, and civil unrest occurring at the same time.
Settled by Settled by 23 April 2034: overextension, debt, and civil unrest either hit the US at the same time, or they did not.
Pending24 Apr 2034 - JL-012said 24 Apr 2024In a US-Iran war, China would provide only limited assistance to Iran, at a level acceptable to the US, while maintaining strategic ambiguity.
Our assessment China kept the strategic ambiguity the claim described, but the help it gave was not at a level Washington accepted: the US sanctioned Chinese entities under Executive Order 13949 and seized a vessel.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-007said 24 Apr 2024Despite current internal divisions, most Iranians would resist a foreign invasion of Iran.
Settled by Settled only if a foreign invasion of Iran occurs: most Iranians resist it, or they do not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-006said 24 Apr 2024Before any actual US invasion of Iran, the major powers involved would agree on rules of war, including a ban on using tactical nuclear weapons.
Settled by Settled if a US invasion of Iran ever begins: either the major powers had first agreed rules of war, including a tactical nuclear ban, or they had not.
Pending8 May 2030 - JL-013said 24 Apr 2024In a US-Iran war, Russia would not deploy soldiers but would instead deter the US from using tactical nuclear weapons by threatening nuclear retaliation.
Our assessment Russia deployed no soldiers, as predicted, but never threatened nuclear retaliation. The mechanism the claim named, deterrence by nuclear threat, did not appear.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-004said 24 Apr 2024A ground invasion of Iran could take place within roughly two years, as Iran and Israel are committed to a war.
Our assessment The premise held and the headline event did not: Iran and Israel went to war, but no ground invasion took place before the 24 April 2026 deadline, and the window has closed.
Partial3 Aug 2026 - JL-011said 24 Apr 2024If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, he will most likely be the one to initiate a war against Iran, possibly around two years from April 2024.
Our assessment Trump won the 2024 election, ordered strikes on Iran on 21 June 2025, and launched Operation Epic Fury on 28 February 2026, which is 22 months after April 2024.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026 - JL-009said 24 Apr 2024If a war with Iran breaks out, the US will be forced to divert resources away from supporting Ukraine.
Our assessment In June 2025 the Pentagon redirected anti-drone munitions from Ukraine to American forces in the Middle East, a diversion Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed in congressional testimony.
Confirmed3 Aug 2026